Forecast for Polar Bear Populations

Scientists document a direct relationship between the extent of sea ice and polar bear survival. Future projected reductions in the extent of annual sea-ice due to global warming may result in the loss of nearly 40% of the Arctic ecosystem’s carrying capacity for polar bears. By mid-century polar bears could disappear from areas that include two thirds of the world's current population. More about climate change can be found in our climate change section.


Amstrup, S., Marcot, B., Douglas, D. USGS Alaska Science Center, Anchorage. Administrative Report